ELECTIONS

Despite late drama, Ryan easily beats Nehlen

The outcome was an affirmation of Ryan's home-state popularity within his own party.

Craig Gilbert
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

House Speaker Paul Ryan routed political newcomer Paul Nehlen Tuesday in a lopsided GOP primary that was overtaken in its closing days by the endless drama and discord around Republican nominee Donald Trump.

Ryan was leading Nehlen by almost 70 points in Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District with most of the ballots counted. He will face Ryan Solen, who won the Democratic primary over Tom Breu.

The outcome was an affirmation of Ryan's home-state popularity within his own party, amid the turbulence surrounding the GOP presidential nominee and Ryan's own public differences with Trump.

Ryan said the results were a vote for a politics that is "inclusive, not divisive," and not "mean."

"It's easy to resort to division," he said at a press conference in Janesville after the race was called. "It is simple to resort to people's fears. That stuff sells, but it doesn't stick."

Those comments could be read as a shot at his primary opponent, Nehlen, who attacked Ryan quite fiercely and personally. But they also could be read as an implicit critique of Trump, whose tone and approach to politics are far more slashing and confrontational than Ryan's.

Ryan was also asked about the latest Trump controversy, the nominee's suggestion Tuesday that gun owners could stop Democrat Hillary Clinton's agenda if she won this fall. The speaker deflected the question, saying he hadn't seen Trump's full remarks. He said it sounded like a "joke gone bad," saying, "I hope he clears it up very quickly. You should never joke about something like that."

VOTE TOTALS: Statewide races | Milwaukee area races

PRIMARY RESULTS: Chisholm wins big in DA race | Taylor easily defeats Barnes in primary | Feingold, Johnson point to NovemberIncumbents win congressional primaries

It had been 42 years since a Wisconsin congressman lost a party primary, and Ryan’s consistent strength among Republican voters in Wisconsin made him a very unlikely candidate to repeat that rare feat.

But Trump’s muddled intervention in the race last week introduced a possible wild card into an otherwise low-profile campaign, sparking a sudden, heavy dose of national attention.

First the nominee praised Ryan’s opponent, an avid Trump supporter, and pointedly withheld his endorsement of the speaker.

Then Trump reversed course three days later under pressure from his party, endorsing Ryan at a campaign event Friday in Green Bay.

Trump’s involvement briefly threatened to turn the Ryan race into a proxy war between the country’s two most powerful Republicans, representing strikingly different political styles, visions, and stands on issues such as trade and immigration.

Nehlen relished the attention from Trump and conservative media outlets.  He attracted the support of some anti-establishment figures on the right, including 2008 vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and commentator Ann Coulter. From early on, he hoped for a "David and Goliath" surprise victory, portraying himself as the little guy challenging the GOP establishment. In one video, he even rode his Harley-Davidson, showed his tattoos, and challenged Ryan to an arm wrestling match. His hope was to replicate the achievement of Virginian Dave Brat, an economist who knocked off then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in a GOP primary two years ago.

But the challenger had no real history in a district where Ryan grew up and has represented since 1999.  Ryan spent significantly on TV ads and enjoyed the support of party leaders, GOP elected officials and talk radio hosts, a major force in Republican politics in southeastern Wisconsin.

Most importantly, polling this summer by the Marquette Law School showed more than 80% of GOP voters in his district had a positive view of the Janesville lawmaker, making the speaker a much more popular figure on his home turf than Trump, who lost the Wisconsin primary four months ago. As it turned out, that positive rating almost perfectly predicted Ryan's share of the primary vote Tuesday.

The last member of Congress from Wisconsin to be ousted in a primary was House Republican Glenn Davis of Waukesha County. He was defeated in 1974 by Bob Kasten, a future U.S. senator. That’s the only case of its kind in this state since 1950, according to a review of post-war elections by the website, Smart Politics.  Before that, the most notable example came in 1946, when Republican Joe McCarthy knocked off Robert La Follette Jr., in a GOP Senate primary.

In the end, Trump's impact on the Ryan race may have negligible, other than to possibly boost turnout, which was somewhat higher Tuesday than it was in Ryan's token primary in 2014.  Amid the melodrama, Ryan's home-state standing remained intact.

But Ryan will continue to face stiff political challenges as speaker, and his balancing act on Trump — endorsing while criticizing — will continue to draw fire from Trump's critics and supporters alike.

Hannah Schwarz and Mary Spicuzza contributed to this report.